Betting Tips: Belgium – France, Nations League 28.9. 2026

BettingCorner.com

September 28, 2026

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Betting prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Monday 28.9. 2026 between Belgium and France at stadium Roi Baudouin. Belgium vs France is the headline fixture in UEFA Nations League Group A1 and Double Chance 1X – Belgium or Draw looks like an attractive selection. Bookmakers currently show a best price close to 2.01. That is appealing for a bet that covers two results, especially given Belgium’s home record and France’s most important attacking absence.

Key Betting Points

Belgium started the Nations League with an impressive 2-0 away victory over Italy.
Belgium entered this match unbeaten in nine home fixtures, winning six.
France are without Kylian Mbappé, who suffered a knee injury against Turkey.
Bookmakers’s current model assigns 45% to Belgium, 22% to the draw and 33% to France, meaning the model’s combined 1X probability is 67%.
Double Chance Belgium or Draw 1X at around 2.01 offers an attractive price, with 1-1 or 2-1 fitting the selection.

Belgium made an excellent start under Mark van Bommel. They travelled to Italy and produced a controlled 2-0 victory, with Mika Godts and Dodi Lukebakio scoring. It was also their first clean sheet in five matches. More importantly, Belgium entered this fixture unbeaten in their previous nine home matches, winning six.

The hosts have enough quality to make France uncomfortable. Kevin De Bruyne remains the main creative influence, while Youri Tielemans can control possession from deeper areas. Godts impressed against Italy and Charles De Ketelaere gives Belgium movement and technical quality through the centre.

Belgium are without Leandro Trossard, but their official matchday squad still contains several attacking alternatives, including Romelu Lukaku, Loïs Openda and Lukebakio. Therefore, Van Bommel has enough depth to change the attack if required.

France also won their opener, beating Turkey 1-0. However, the performance was less dominant than the result suggests. France had 64% possession but produced 1.17 expected goals, slightly fewer than Turkey. More importantly, Kylian Mbappé suffered a knee injury and will miss the Belgium match.

Ousmane Dembélé should replace Mbappé through the middle, with Michael Olise and Désiré Doué supporting him. France still have enormous quality, so Belgium cannot afford defensive mistakes. However, Mbappé’s absence removes their most direct scoring threat.

There is one clear warning. France have won the last five meetings with Belgium and are unbeaten in their last nine away matches. Therefore, 1X is not a low-risk selection. Still, Belgium’s home strength, their impressive win in Italy and France’s injury situation make the current price interesting.

Summary

A 1-1 draw or 2-1 Belgium win fits the betting angle well. At around 1.90 or better, Double Chance 1X offers a strong balance between protection and price, with the most likely (algorithmic) result being 1:1.

Predicted lineup Belgium: Lammens, Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper, Raskin, Tielemans, Moreira, De Bruyne, Godts, De Ketelaere

Predicted lineup France: Maignan, Koundé, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert, Cherki, Koné, Rabiot, Olise, Dembélé, Doué